Jaguars likely to land No. 1 pick, draft Trevor Lawrence, thanks to easier schedule

[Jaxson De Ville]

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The Jaguars are poised to pick first in the 2021 NFL draft and get Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who is widely regarded not only as the best prospect playing college football this season, but one of the handful of elite prospects of the last decade.

Thanks to the Jets winning yesterday, both the Jets and Jaguars are 1-13, tied for the worst record in the NFL. But the Jaguars are favored to end up with the first overall pick because of the first tiebreaker: Strength of schedule.

If two teams finish with the same record, the NFL gives the higher pick to the team that played the easier schedule. The thinking is a team that went 1-15 against an easy schedule is a worse team than a team that went 1-15 against a hard schedule.

The Jaguars have the strength of schedule tiebreaker because their opponents have a combined winning percentage of .549, while the Jets’ opponents have a combined winning percentage of .602. With only two weeks left in the season, the Jaguars’ strength of schedule isn’t going to catch up to the Jets’ strength of schedule.

So the Jets’ only hope of landing Lawrence is to lose their last two games, while the Jaguars win one. Given that the Jaguars are playing two teams still fighting for wild card berths, the Bears and Colts, it is unlikely that they’ll win one. If anything, the Jets are the team more likely to win another game, playing the Browns and Patriots in their final two.

We learned in yesterday’s Rams-Jets game that anything can happen, but it looks like Lawrence will be a Jaguar.