Viktor
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- Mar 19, 2019
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There's no denying the importance of Minnesota's Monday Night Football game at Chicago.
The Vikings started off behind the 8-ball but now are sitting at 3-5 and need every win they can get. Not to mention, a win at Soldier Field would mark Minnesota's third straight division victory.
But ESPN's Seth Walder pointed out that this NFC North matchup holds even more weight for the Vikings, who are hoping to claw themselves back into the playoff picture. It's possible, Walder said, for Minnesota to make a postseason appearance – but a lot rides on Monday's game. He wrote:
After crashing pretty hard to start the season, Minnesota is maybe back in this thing? [Football Power Index], which really never lost faith in the 3-5 Vikings to begin with, doesn't think it's a reach.
Let's start with whether they'll sweep the Bears. If Minnesota can win [Monday] in Chicago and then again while hosting the Bears in December, you're looking at almost a 50/50 shot (47 percent) of getting into the playoffs. Those are Minnesota's two highest-leverage games of the season, which makes sense – both teams are vying for Wild Card spots. A loss in either of those games drops the Vikings chances to 16 percent.
Walder said an eight-win season probably "won't cut it" for the Vikings in the NFC, even with the expansion to a seventh seed this season. According to FPI, the Vikings would have just a 10-percent chance at the playoffs with a .500 record.
At nine wins, though, that number jumps way up, but it depends heavily on whom the losses are against. If the losses come at the hands of unideal opponents – say the Bears and Bucs – the Vikings would have a 59-percent chance of reaching the postseason. But if they lose two games instead to non-Wild Card contenders like the Cowboys and Lions, the Vikings would fly all the way up to 87 percent.
The long story short, the Vikings need to win nine games and make sure to beat the Bears twice along the way.