Lunchbreak: Vikings Lead NFC North in NFL.com's Projected Win Totals

[Viktor]

Although the Vikings regular season isn't scheduled to open until four months from Wednesday, predictions are already being made about how the team will fare in 2020.


Cynthia Frelund, an analytics expert for NFL.com, recently ran 100,000 projected simulations using up-to-date data for all 32 teams to determine a projected win total for each this upcoming season.


Frelund's model predicted 9.0 wins for the Vikings, which topped all the teams in the NFC North.


"The Minnesota Vikings made the most selections in the NFL Draft since it became a seven-round event in 1994 with 15 picks," Frelund said. "My model ranks all of their offseason moves very highly, with the nine-win projection topping the NFC North."


Frelund had the Packers at 8.8 wins, the Bears at 7.9 wins and the Lions at 6.0 wins.


"Aaron Rodgers keeps [Green Bay's] win total high, meaning a few miraculous moments could easily seal the division," Frelund said. "Quarterback play is a huge factor in my model, and in the case of the Chicago Bears, could shift their current projection of 7.9 wins.


"Right now, I'm using a 50-50 split between Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles, but check back as the season nears," Frelund added. "Despite a strong draft class that addressed team needs in getting a top-rated corner [in Jeff Okudah] and dual-threat running back [in D'Andre Swift], the Detroit Lions are forecast to only get six wins this season, primarily due to questions on defense."


The Vikings ranked fifth among all NFC teams in terms of projected wins.


San Francisco led the way at 10.1, followed by New Orleans (10.0), Dallas (9.6) and Philadelphia (9.3).


The Chiefs led Frelund's projections among all teams with 11.1 wins.