New-money analysis makes $22 million for Mike Thomas seem far less reasonable than it is

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Another week, another report of a player entering the fourth year of a rookie wage-scale contract seeking a seemingly outlandish amount of money that on closer review isn’t all that outlandish.

Last week, news of Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott’s agents “broaching” $34 million per year became a much lower annual average when ditching the new-money analysis for a calculation based on total value at signing. This week, the report that Saints receiver Michael Thomas wants $22 million per year becomes something much, much lower when considering what that would become when signed from scratch.

Thomas will make only $1.148 million in 2019, the last year of his contract. A four-year extension with a $22 million average becomes a five-year, $89.148 million contract. That’s a deal with a per-year value at signing of $17.82 million per year.

That’s still a lot, but it’s a far cry from $22 million per year. And the team’s reported offer of $18 million per year, if tied to a four-year extension, becomes a five-year, $73.148 million contract, giving it a total value at signing of $14.6 million per year.

So while the new-money numbers continue to make these deals seem a lot stronger (which most agents like), focusing on new money can make it much harder for players to get what they want, because it makes the players seem too greedy during negotiations — and it makes the teams seem too generous when agreeing to such terms.