Who are the truly special running backs in 2019?

Giant

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Mar 19, 2019
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The looming holdout for Chargers running back Melvin Gordon and the potential holdout for Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott has dusted off the debate regarding whether the NFL properly values the running back position. It does, but only for truly special running backs.

That’s the line of demarcation. Every year, the NFL has a handful of special running backs. And it’s always subject to change; last year, Rams running back Todd Gurley was special. This year, the jury on Gurley is out, at best.

So who are the special running backs entering 2019? I see three: Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, and Christian McCaffrey. Others could become special throughout 2019, like Joe Mixon, James Conner, and/or Dalvin Cook (to name only a few). Others who once were special could become special again, like Gurley, Le'Veon Bell, and (once his suspension ends) Kareem Hunt.

When it comes to special running backs getting paid, the problem continues to be that the most special performances typically happen under the lowball terms of a rookie contract. By the time the player is in position to get paid, it’s entirely possible that his best days already are behind him.

For example, Chris Johnson had 1,228 rushing yards as a rookie with the Titans, 2,006 in his second year, and 1,364 in his third season. He held out in 2011 to get paid, and he got paid he did. But then Johnson had more rushing yards than the career low for his first three seasons only once, with 1,243 yards in 2012.

Other special running backs have improved after getting paid, like LaDainian Tomlinson and Adrian Peterson. Still, there’s a chance that by the time Elliott, Barkley, and McCaffrey get their financial rewards, they won’t do more than they’ve done before executing their second contracts.

That’s why it’s important for special running backs to begin clamoring for new deals as soon as they become eligible: Elliott now, McCaffrey after 2019, and Barkley after 2020. And it’s equally important for non-special running backs to think carefully about whether to take a stand in order to get their own contracts, because they are much more easily replaced than special running backs.

For example, before Gordon holds out, he needs to assess his own skills relative to other available options, Gordon needs to consider the team he’s dealing with, and Gordon needs to ponder the end game.

In Gordon’s case, Austin Ekeler would step in. How big is the gap between Gordon and Ekeler? That’s a question that Gordon’s camp needs to assess objectively, candidly, and if need be bluntly.

Then there’s the fact that the Chargers don’t seem to be inclined to wobble. Their coach, Anthony Lynn, is a former running back and running backs coach. Lynn knows special running backs when he sees them, and if Lynn has no qualms about flipping the switch from Gordon to Ekeler, well, Lynn probably knows what he’s doing.

Finally, what happens if Gordon holds out and demands a trade? Will another team offer something significant to the Chargers and also pay Gordon what he wants? Or will Gordon eventually cave, like Maurice Jones-Drew did in 2012?

A holdout likely won’t end well for Gordon. As running backs go, a holdout will usually end well only for truly special running backs. And those teams that have special running backs usually know that they need to move before their hand is forced.
 
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