Carson Wentz’s deal complicates Dak Prescott talks

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News of Carson Wentz‘s new contract in Philadelphia raised immediate questions regarding the contract eventually to be given to Rams quarterback Jared Goff, who was taken one spot in front of Wentz in the 2016 draft. But Wentz’s deal has more immediate relevance to a quarterback drafted far later than the first two selections.

The Cowboys selected Dak Prescott with the 135th pick in the 2016 draft, behind Goff, Wentz, Paxton Lynch (No. 26), Christian Hackenberg (No. 51), Jacoby Brissett (No. 91), Cody Kessler (No. 93), and Connor Cook (No. 100).

Prescott has started 48 of 48 regular-season games, and he has led the Cowboys to the playoffs twice. This year, the Cowboys beat the Seahawks and quarterback Russell Wilson before losing to the Rams and Goff.

Prescott also has a 3-2 record against Wentz.

Because Prescott wasn’t a first-round pick, his contract expires after the 2019 season. Which puts him in line for the franchise tag in February, barring a long-term deal.

The Cowboys have been trying to get Prescott to sign a new contract, but the Cowboys have said they want him to accept a team-friendly deal. Aiding the argument is the fact that being the quarterback of the Cowboys has real value, from increased exposure (Dallas games always generate huge ratings) to enhanced endorsement deals to a potential path to a post-playing career in the broadcast booth.

If Wentz, who has never played in a playoff game because he has suffered season-ending injuries in consecutive Decembers, has a value of $32 million per year in new money, what is Prescott worth?

Is he worth the four-year, $128 million extension that Wentz received? If so, that would put Prescott under contract for five years and $130 million, an average at signing of $26 million per year.

But would that be enough for Prescott? A five-year, $130 million contract would still put him behind the likes of Jimmy Garoppolo and Kirk Cousins in total value at signing.

The problem for the Cowboys and Prescott comes from his low contract-year salary. To get to $30 million per year in total value at signing, Prescott would need a four-year, $148 million extension. That would result in a new-money average of $37 million per year, a new record high by $2 million per year.

So how about $28 million per year in total value at signing, like Kirk Cousins? That would require a four-year, $138 million extension. Which would equate to a new-money average of $34.5 million — just behind Wilson at $35 million annually.

The Cowboys surely aren’t interested in making that kind of an offer.

Should Prescott be penalized because the rookie wage scale sticks him at $2 million for 2019? Should the Cowboys rip up the current deal without regard to what Prescott is due to make and replace the obsolete contract with one that better reflects his current value?

If the Cowboys won’t do it, Prescott could choose to hold firm, refusing all team-friendly offers and playing the Kirk Cousins franchise-tag game, making roughly $25 million for 2020 and roughly $30 million for 2021 before forcing the Cowboys to choose between paying him $43.2 million for 2022 or letting him become a free agent. That would be $98.2 million for three years, an average of $32.7 million per year.

But then Prescott would undoubtedly hit the open market, while still only 29 years old.

The real question is whether Prescott will be willing to say “no” to the best offer the Cowboys put on the table, choosing instead to carry the injury risk on a year-to-year basis. It’s one thing to want this number or that number in the abstract. That all changes when the team presents the player and his agents with a giant pile of life-altering money, forcing the player to choose between getting paid a lot now or getting paid (or not paid) a lot more later.