Monday Morning Mailbag: Analyzing Zimmer's 4th-Down Call vs. Seahawks

[Viktor]

I have rarely second-guessed Mike Zimmer, but I am as steamed as I ever have been after the game over the decision not to take 3 points. The offense had driven all the way down the field and killed almost all of the clock. Absolutely ridiculous.


— Brad Lewis in Schenectady, New York


If we kick field goal, we win or least it goes to overtime!


— Toby Smart


Let's dive into it, as Vikings Head Coach Mike Zimmer's decision to go for it on fourth down late in the game will likely be analyzed by everyone and their mother in the coming days.


To recap, here was the scenario: The Vikings led 26-21 and faced a fourth-and-1 at the Seattle 6-yard line coming out of the 2-minute warning. The Seahawks had one timeout remaining.


The outcome, of course, was that Alexander Mattison was stopped for no gain. And then Russell Wilson put on his magician's hat yet again and drove the Seahawks 94 yards for the game-winning score.


If the Vikings get the yard, the game is over. Simple as that.


According to a stat shown during NBC's Sunday Night Football, a field goal would not have changed the Vikings win percentage of 94 percent. A Vikings conversion would have given Minnesota a 100-win percentage, and a Seattle stop would have left the Vikings with a 74-percent chance to win.


Courtney Cronin, the ESPN Vikings reporter, tweeted out similar numbers. She noted that ESPN's win probability model had the Vikings with a 98-percent chance to win by going for it, and that they would have had a 97.8-percent chance to win had they elected to attempt a field goal.


Do I agree with Zimmer's decision to go for it and try and seal the game? YES.


Here's why:


The Vikings entered Sunday night's game at 1-3, having endured a rough opening month of the 2020 season. Now, leading late in the fourth quarter, you have a chance to gain a yard — when you have already run for 201 yards — to secure a signature win and give your slim playoff hopes a heartbeat.


If the Vikings convert, they move to 2-3 and get a reeling Falcons team at home in Week 6 that just fired their general manager and head coach. Win that one, and you're suddenly 3-3 at the bye and ready for a fun 10-game stretch.


But lose in Seattle — a place that has become a house of horrors for the Vikings — and it's tough to imagine the postseason with a 1-4 start. The Vikings were a yard away from a 2-3 record, and a boatload of confidence.


Yes, kicking a field goal there puts the Vikings up by eight points, and forces Wilson to engineer a game-tying drive that includes a 2-point conversion. With the way Wilson is playing this season, that outcome would have likely happened.


And then what if Wilson gets the ball in overtime and scores against a leaky Vikings defense and Minnesota's offense never touches the ball again? Then maybe we're all wondering why Zimmer didn't just go for the win when he had the chance.


The Vikings needed a single yard to win. The Seahawks needed 94 yards to win. Give me the chance to get a yard and seal the deal.


To close, perhaps Zimmer doesn't make the decision to go for it if he didn't understand the magnitude of Sunday's game so early in the season. He wanted to give his team a jolt, and getting that yard would have sent a message to his players that he believed in them not only Sunday, but for the rest of the season as they try to dig out of the 0-3 hole and make a run at the postseason.


I'll let him have the final word.


"We came here to win so I'm not going to second guess any of that stuff. We didn't get it done," Zimmer said before a long pause. "Everybody else will [second-guess the call]. Let them."